After a brief flurry of new cases, the numbers are headed back down again.  Given the normal lags between cases and deaths, the death numbers should begin to follow the case numbers in 10 days or so. 


 

Here are some thoughts about the tensions around lockdowns, masks and washing of surfaces.  The proponents of such policies, things we have been taught from little on up understand that one can't get sick from something one has no exposure to.  It makes sense.  Avoid contaminated water and you avoid typhoid.  Avoid mosquitoes and you avoid yellow fever.  Avoid touching poison ivy and you don't get the rash.  The data, however, shows clearly that such policies have had little or no effect on the spread of this particular scourge.  Why?  This is a respiratory scourge, and respiratory scourges are notoriously difficult for people to isolate from.  They float in the air we breathe.  Cleaning surfaces doesn't help.  You have to clean the air.  (Incidentally,  the odds are 10,000 to 1 for you getting SARS-COV-2 from touching a contaminated surface.  Factor in the probability that any given surface is contaminated and you get very, very long odds against getting SARS-COV-2 from touching something at the supermarket.  All that washing of things is pure show.)

Back to the air we breathe.  Masks work poorly because they fail to filter out the SARS-COV-2 virus particle.  The latter is too small.  People also fail to replace their masks after each use.  Imagine your surgeon standing over you in a mask she has been wearing for two weeks!  So the only way to avoid contamination is to avoid being in the same room with other breathing humans.   Oh sure, limiting that can lower your immediate risk.  Still even minimal contact with other humans will eventually bring the virus into your presence, not to mention the mental anguish of living in solitary confinement.  

So the whole thing sums to this.  Isolation has logic, but has been doomed to failure in this pandemic.  The act of breathing in the presence of other people will eventually get one infected.  The only benefit is the possibility of avoiding infection until a vaccine appears - or until everybody else has achieved herd immunity and the virus necessarily disappears.   

This leaves us with the balance between the large known costs of isolation against the chance of your avoiding infection due to your isolation.  The costs are very large.  The benefits are limited by two factors.  First, our immune systems are surprisingly effective in protecting us from the COVID-19 reactions to the infections.  That nearly 600,000 deaths seems huge.  It is however, .18% of the population, and most victims already have health issues, with many near death already.  Second, again there is no clear empirical evidence that the isolation policies have worked.  It not some hundreds of thousand of deaths less than we would have had without the lockdowns, social distancing, and masks.  Many critics have cited research that postulates an increase in health effects due to the policies.   We have the weighing of large, known costs against highly questionable benefits.  

Why then the continuation of the policies?  Well, almost all officials are retreating.  Maybe the obvious is becoming obvious even to them.  However, we still have the received human wisdom concerning contagious disease.  Maybe measles is the best example.  Your sister got measles, then you did too.  "Duh, she gave them to me."  The word 'contagious' comes from the latin for together and touch. Now, however, we have a vaccine that conquers measles.  Get the shot and you are immune.  Same logic is working now with COVIS-19 The important difference between measles and COVID-19 is that humans did not stop the world until that measles vaccine appeared.  They came to realize that the virus was sometimes fatal or injurious, but most people survived okay.  We are learning the same thing about COVID-19.  It just has taken a while.  We now know that the risk to the healthy large majority of our population is very small.  Certainly not worth the large costs of isolation.  Even the arch conservative CDC says schools should open.  

This all leaves us here.  To the average American, COVID-19 can be a deadly risk, but a highly unlikely one.  Like being killed in a car wreck.  The numbers are similar.  We keep driving despite the risk.  We should be free to keep up our social intercouse despite the risk.  For the other 10% of Americans there is, blessedly now the vaccines.  We are up to over 10% of Americans jabbed, with a much higher percentage of the vulnerable innoculated.  Was it worth the very real costs of the waits?  Seems to me a choice left to the individual.  What should be clear now is that the vaccines have moved the risks to the vulnerable to those same tolerable low levels.  I ate dinner in a country restaurant tonight where almost no one was masked.  Maybe the country folk are out in front on this one. 

The Wilson Center is currently providing periodic updates of COVID statistics.   Please see the following link for additional detail:
LINK

InHouse Physicians recently provided an update to the American Logistics Aid Network on activity that companies should be considering while returning operations back to 100 percent in light of the COVID pandemic situation.  Topics included vaccine complexity and flow, temperature checks and other start up considerations.   InHouse Physicians was created in 1992 to meet the corporate need to provide access to convenient, high-quality medical care for employees and/or meeting attendees. This service is focused on meeting “Duty of Care” and risk management requirements.  For more information please contact:

Patrick Gahagan

Vice President – Customer Development

InHouse Physicians

pgahagan@ihphysicians.com

630-634-0011

www.inhousephysicians.com

Transport Futures releases latest statistics on Covid situation. Trend suggests improvement in case count. For more information please see the attached PDF.
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Covid Act Now issues latest update.   Latest heat map suggests improvement. See the following link for more details:
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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JP Morgan releases US COVID-19 Chartbook which includes new exhibits to help track the path to potential herd immunity. 

See the following link for more information:
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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CDC issues interim list of categories of essential workers mapped to standardized industry codes and titles.  See the following link for more information:
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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Law firm Littler Mendelson is maintaining a tracking document  updated for (all) state vaccine plans and prioritization frameworks.  It was last updated on 1/5/21.  For more information please contact:
LINK

Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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National Association of Counties has shared a listing of each state’s preliminary plans for administration of the COVID 19 vaccine.   See the following links for more information:
KFF LINK
NACo LINK

Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
LINK

Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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American Institute for Economic Research issues update on Coronavirus death statistic reporting.   See the attached link for more information.   
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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Covid Act Now has issued its latest update.   Please see the following link for more information: 
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Transport Futures has issued its latest COVID-19 update.  See the attached PDF for more information
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Department of Homeland Security issues report on information and communications technology supply chain impacts resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.   For more information please see the attached PDF file.
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COVID Act Now releases latest update.  See the following link for more information:
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Transport Futures issues latest Covid-19 update.  See attached PDF for statistical details.
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The National Industrial Transportation League Presents

Transporting the COVID-19 Vaccine:  Supply Chain Impact and Obstacles

November 19
​11am - Noon EST
 

The COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution will be the World's Greatest Logistical Feat- Learn about the Bottlenecks, Obstacles and Challenges from the Front Lines. 

Regardless of your company's involvement, your supply chain may be impacted. Don't miss this important session.

The pandemic transformed global supply chains, tested their limits and has proven most to be highly resilient. Operation Warp Speed—the name given to the shipping of COVID-19 vaccine, in a cold/cool environment in the US, (and everywhere on earth), is an undertaking like no other before.  Whether involved or not, this project will likely have several unintended consequences for shippers and service providers in our interconnected world. Join this panel as they explore challenges from the perspectives of a global package delivery provider, a healthcare freight forwarder, a temperature-controlled packaging supplier, and a healthcare and food trucking service provider. They'll discuss the vaccine launch, and how it might lead to potential complexity in related and unrelated areas of the supply chain. 

Featured Speakers:
Michael Haley, SkyCell
Lorant Kovacs, DB Schenker
Mary Tussing, United Airlines Cargo
Larry St. Onge, DHL
Jeff Tucker, Tucker Company Worldwide

Reserve your spot for this complimentary session! 

Transport Futures issues statistical update on the U.S. Covid 19 situation.  For details please see the attached PDF file.
PDF FILE LINK

Covid Act Now issues update on the U.S. Covid situation.  For more information please go to:
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Covid Act Now has released updated information on the U.S. Covid 19 situation.  Please see the attached link for more information:
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Covid Act Now has released their latest heat map that tracks Covid-19 cases and related statistics.  For more information click on the following link:
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Transport Futures released a recent update on the COVID-19 statistics that they are tracking.  See the attached PDF for additional detail.
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Covid Act Now, a non profit group dedicated to providing accurate information on the Covid 19 pandemic, released updated trends on cases by state and county.  See the attached link for more details:  https://covidactnow.org/?s=1147275

Covid Act Now is volunteer-driven 501c3 non-profit, built by a multidisciplinary team of technologists, epidemiologists, public health experts, and public policy leaders. Their aim is to provide the best-available local-level disease intelligence and data analysis on COVID in the U.S.

Covid Act Now published the first version of their model on March 20, 2020. Since then, they have provided information to millions of Americans and engaged with dozens of federal, state, and local governments, to enable data-driven COVID decisions.

To sign up for their alerts newsletter go to:
LINK

Transport Futures releases its latest statistical summary of COVID-19 figures.  See the attached PDF for more detail.
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Transport Futures issues latest statistical Covid update and offers a perspective on the effectiveness of lockdown restrictions.  See the attached PDF for details.
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Transport Futures issues latest COVID-19 statistical update.   Please see the attached PDF file for more detail.
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Transport Futures releases latest COVID-19 update:

"Many, many more deaths on the way. Prediction models, which fluctuate, currently suggest the US could see 180,000 more deaths by the end of 2020 -- 380,000 deaths total. If fatalities approach that level, they'll far eclipse even Civil War battle deaths."  

                                                                                                     CNN 9/23/20 

“To reach 380,000 deaths from the 205,000 we have now, the daily death rate would have to more than double from the current falling rate to return to levels not seen since Mid May.  Sadly such quotes are typical of the hysterical attention-grabbing statements we are getting from the media.  There is not one piece of data from the current contagion that supports such a prediction.  Note the key words 'prediction models'.  Such language implies a model based on data.  Obviously these models are not.”  

“How is a citizen to understand what is going when fed such nonsense from leaders and experts from both sides of the issues?” 

See attached for statistical detail. LINK

Noël Perry

Transport Futures

Transport Futures issues updated virus report and tracking statistics.  See attached for more information.
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Broughton Capital and Transport Futures issue updated coronavirus statistics.  See attached PDF for more detail.
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Broughton Capital and Transport Futures issue updated coronavirus statistics.  See attached PDF for more detail.
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The Essential Critical Infrastructure Workers Guidance Version 4.0 provides guidance on how jurisdictions and critical infrastructure owners can use the list to assist in prioritizing the ability of essential workers to work safely while supporting ongoing infrastructure operations across the nation.   

CISA issued the guidance originally on March 19, 2020, and published three additional updates to reflect the changing landscape of the nation’s COVID-19 response. While earlier versions were primarily intended to help officials and organizations identify essential work functions in order to allow them access to their workplaces during times of community restrictions, Version 4.0 identifies those essential workers that require specialized risk management strategies to ensure that they can work safely. It can also be used to begin planning and preparing for the allocation of scare resources used to protect essential workers against COVID-19.

If you have feedback or additional questions, please reach out to: CISA.CAT@Cisa.DHS.gov

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Broughton Capital and Transport Futures issued updated COVID 19 impact report.  See attached for details.
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Broughton Capital and Transport Futures issue updated statistics on the coronavirus pandemic.  See the attached PDF for details.
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Broughton Capital and Transport Futures issue updated COVID-19 virus report.  For additional information please see the attached PDF document.
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The Association of American Medical Colleges has released a new report “The Way Forward on COVID-19” which is positioned as a “Road Map to Reset the Nation’s Approach to the Pandemic”. 
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Broughton Capital and Transport Futures issue updated virus report.

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US Chamber of Commerce Foundation presents an interview with Starbucks, IBM and Dow to talk about operating in a Covid 19 environment.  

Watch the session at: 
https://youtu.be/z_dGSrDSEF8

Special Edition of Path Forward with Dr. Anthony Fauci 

Friday, July 17

11:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. EST

Don't miss this chance to learn more about the state of the coronavirus pandemic from one of the world's top public health experts.

Dr. Anthony Fauci joins us tomorrow for an in-depth conversation about COVID-19. During this live edition of Path Forward, Dr. Fauci will field questions from U.S. Chamber President Suzanne Clark and members of the audience.

This event is a free public event. Reserve your spot by registering today:
Registration Link

Why We Should Not Be Concerned About Increasing Covid-19 Cases in Texas: 

https://www.aier.org/article/why-we-should-not-be-concerned-about-increasing-covid-19-cases-in-texas/

Broughton Capital issues latest Covid 19 analysis and update.  See PDF for details.
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